Thursday, 8 March 2007

Probability !

Love, i have to hand it to you (Thanks for the comment) ! Nice to know that in the darned world of today interlaced with reality and insanity there are still people who believe that cats have nine lives . Well as i said last curiosity is the cure for boredom... and bored that i am .. i did some quick search in terms of your comment. Apparently its difficult to satisfy the cat(s) ! Took the liberty (verging on plagiarism) to hereby publish the proof.

Anonymous your question is a classic one and am sure you know the answer is plain and simple - "NO" ! However to make it more theoretical (or theatrical) lets go by research. I treat your question in two parts the former of which has been answered in a blunt no. For the second part i take refuge in one of the research findings: A group of people was given a choice of placing a bet of a card being drawn from a couple of decks. One deck had equal red and black cards and the composition of other deck was unknown. Mathematically one deck was "Risky" and the other one was "Ambiguous". When the choice of bet was placed to the group , they deliberated for a long time and eventually chose the "Risky" deck for placing the bet. Consensus thinking forced them to not make them seem "Foolish" (?) by voicing their opinions in favour of a "Ambiguous" (?) deck.

Interestingly enough the same problem was posed to individuals from a separate group on a one on one basis and each immediately responded something on the lines "Doesn't matter where the bet is placed, the probability of drawing a red card remains the same in both decks".

Moral of the story is that group thinking can cloud decision making process whenever there is ambiguity/risk involved. To quote "Meetings are intellectual masturbation sessions. No one gets laid i.e. achieves anything except self satisfaction !" - His Highness Sir Timus

3 comments:

Love said...

hey, Sharma-Ji,

I see you havent received my other comment of yesterday..which basically consisted of 3 points:

1. Could you please allow images in the comments, as the *img src=* does not get approved/accepted and thus you lost my wisdom of yesterday! grrr.... I/we would have liked to insert some peculiar/pretty dirty things in your blog-log and spoil it once for all;) hehe;).

2. I have also mentioned that "Ji" in my language means "she". Find it really funny. Who wears the pants here?

3. I also asked where would I find the answers to all the enquiries. But even so, I found it all already...Thanks!

aligator!

Love said...

I can't believe you are bored! How lazy is that?

Anyway, as a friend in need is a friend indeed, I googled you some inspirational (?) sources:
http://www.inspireme.net/
http://www.43things.com/things/view/185093
http://www.inspiremethursday.com/

Feel inspired. Spread your wings and fly away...;)

P.S. As if that helped.

Anonymous said...

Well said.